NYC Brokers Dish about Market Conditions with Respect to Seasonality

NYC Brokers Dish about Market Conditions with Seasonality

Spring is traditionally considered as the time of renewal and growth. With real estate, this has been seen as the time of new developments and sales; however, there is also a response to new taxes, laws and demand that have impacted the industry beyond the season. Below, some NYC brokers and real estate agents share some of their opinions on seasonality within the industry with the general consensus being that when the market is uncertain, seasonality takes a back seat – and savvy buyers know this. Read on to check out their insight below:

Real Estate Broker Josh Rubin of Douglas Elliman Real Estate: “Yes, market conditions override seasonality. Uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment. Without it, no season will make for a busy market. When financial markets are stable, all seasons are active, but spring is generally the most robust. In New York, spring often comes early, with activity picking up in late January and remaining busy until the Fourth of July. For example, I know August is generally a slow month but August 2018 was super busy for some brokers.”

Real Estate Broker Sheila Trichter of Warburg: “In the past, the summers were slow in larger apartments. Once school was out families left the city for their summer homes with dads visiting on weekends. More and more moms now work and families remain in the city except for weekends. Buyers are more frequently available to look at properties during the week and seasons don’t matter as much. Additionally, because we are living in such turbulent times there are sellers who want to sell their properties before who knows what happens next.”

Real Estate Agent Rafael Feldman of Warburg Realty: “What's interesting is that buyers have become very aware of the seasonality of the market and, since we've been in this down market for the past three years, savvy buyers are using those traditional seasonal slow periods to move in for the kill while the competition is on vacation, particularly with apartments that have been sitting for months and sellers have already felt the significant pain of a slump.”

Real Estate Agent Alex Lavrenov of Warburg Realty: “Seasonality really only affects the amount of people that can be on the market and I would say is more visible in rentals, for example people would simply rather move in the summer and Some of that can definitely translate into sales. But I think summer just is more of a catalyst to explore the buying process, which then brings higher traffic on to the market but it doesn’t mean it the purchaser is going to buy, that is still dependent on them finding a property of value, availability of such property, the financial aspect of the purchase and some degree of utility/investment in the future, and market conditions really dictate all three of those points.”

Real Estate Broker Eric Mendelsohn of Warburg Realty: “For sales, yes but you will always have more supply on the market in the fall and spring then the winter and summer months. For rentals, no, seasonality will always be more important in rentals.”

Real Estate Broker Gerard Splendore of Warburg Realty: “IMO, the market is driven by all the “life forces” that govern all of our lives: Birth, death, marriage, new jobs, graduation, divorce, health, ageing, education, etc. June typically has graduations and weddings, so moving into July and August, as graduates appear for their first jobs in NYC, it is safe to anticipate a spike in rentals and sales. Students who will start school in the fall will be looking for rentals in August and September, if these students did not secure apartments prior to the close of school, or if they are incoming freshman. Short term rentals are always at a high in June due to summer internships. It is wise also to be aware of the number of “Boomers” who are daily turning 65 and potentially retiring or moving to Florida or onto their next careers. Retirement and ageing drive the “downsizing” market. Summer has typically been the month that families with children move to settle children into new schools before September. Moving companies will confirm the spike in moves during the summer months. As someone who has moved more than once in the winter, it is not a pleasant experience, just as holding open houses in winter is not a simple or pleasant experience.Spring, Autumn and Summer are always preferable for showing apartments and moves, as well as the attendant renovations that often accompany new residences.”

Real Estate Agent Noemi Bitterman of Warburg Realty: “The word ‘waves’ is more suited for this market than seasonality since we sometimes experience all seasons in a span of a few days. Traditionally June and July are transitional months. There are graduations that lead to a new job in Manhattan and a new place close to work is required, those with a job contract expiring are leaving and moving back to their home in another state or country and school is over and parents take advantage of the less intense school work load to move. These factors cause waves of people moving in and moving out of the city. December is also a month where things tend to slow down. It’s the end of the year and many have family and holidays on their agendas and buying or selling a property is too much to deal with, most wait until after the new year or until spring to make their move. These waves indicate when the market is ‘in’ with buyers and sellers and when it’s “out” with minimal movement of buyers and sellers.”